My heart was with Super Saver in the Preakness, since I'd seen him win (with my own two eyes!) in the Derby. But my head knew it was not to be, and I knew Lookin At Lucky would do it this time around. Of course, he did, proof that once Eskendereya was retired due to an injury, Lucky would be one of the better and possibly the best of the three-year-olds this year.
He should have won the Derby. And I think he might have, if the Derby wasn't just about who can find the right position four jumps out of the gate.
Twenty horses is just too many to have on a track, even one as wide as Churchill Downs. Lookin At Lucky drew the rail, and that was the end of him for that race. He got squeezed and then pushed into the fence, and as soon as he was checked, he was done. Super Saver finished well, and he's a good horse, but he's not a great one. He had an exceptional jockey who gave him a magnificent ride, but he also had the luck of a good post position that let him run out to immediately stay out of trouble.
Look at how it used to be. Secretariat faced ten rivals. Seattle Slew took on thirteen other horses; Affirmed looked at ten. Those are the types of fields that now run in the Preakness and Belmont, where a horse wins because he's the best that day, not because he managed to come out of the cavalry charge to the first turn in one piece.
The field went to 18 horses in 1992, when longshot Lil E Tee came in, the only major race he won; longshot Sea Hero did it the following year, also with 18 candidates. The numbers varied for a few years after that until 2002, when twenty horses went to the post, and War Emblem emerged. Since then, there has been one field of 17, and two of 19 horses. For all others, the gates have been filled to 20 horses, the largest number allowed.
I'd like to see it capped at 15 horses, maximum, and even that's bigger than it should be, but I understand that the Derby needs to make money. Put only the best of the best in those gates, and give every one of them a fighting chance to take it because they're good, instead of just lucky. The Derby should be the ultimate test and the ultimate victory for the best three-year-old of the year -- and not just an opportunity for every owner, trainer and jockey on the continent to say they were there on the first Saturday in May.